Let the people speak

Dear Friends,

It is incredible how much your world can change in four days. I am in Turkey. I am safe. But I am devastated, to be honest. Please, pray for Egypt. Voices are being silenced by the minute, and things are changing faster than anyone can know. People in the government are manipulating the situation, and arresting human rights people, journalists, and activists, and after initial unity, Egyptians are now divided and are being forced to choose between freedom and security. I have stories to share, but that is for later - and none of this is about my story, unless by sharing my stories I can share Egyptians' stories.

I haven't had the time or energy to write anything comprehensive and, as I said, things change by the minute. But if you have time, please, please, please read what is below. If all this happens and the Egyptian people still have no voice, it will be an unimagined tragedy.

The following is from an American friend and former colleague/boss who is in Cairo and has been there for the past decade (I've bolded certain parts that she wrote). She says much of what I would wish to say. Please, read:

Dear all,

Despite being here and talking to lots of people and watching hours of news coverage each day, our predictions of what was going to happen next have been wrong every time. With that health warning read on if you like.

MEDIA

To start with one thing that has emerged as important to me and that I am not sure if outside media outlets are addressing is the importance not just of media, but of a divided media contributing to a divided people.

Facebookers and upper and middle class folk who know English and have satellite dishes watch CNN and BBC and al-Jazeera English & Arabic. For everyone else, after the government shut down al-Jazeera Arabic here, unless they watched BBC Arabic they are very likely watching state news. The result is two very different presentations of what is happening. This was very noticeable on Tuesday when int’l channels were showing the dramatic images of Tahrir Square filled with peaceful partying demonstrators. The government news channels had for days had a camera simply showing the bridges across the Nile with a trickle of traffic and on Tuesday the same camera showed the bridge packed for half a mile and brought to a standstill by demonstrators in Tahrir. The only images of Tahrir were from ground level and close up never showing more than 10 people in the frame. It would also show pro-mubarak demonstrators in similar fashion. So many in Egypt could have had no idea what was really happening in Tahrir, the numbers of people or the atmosphere. Instead the message was that the city was being held hostage and ground to a halt by a few. Similarly yesterday state TV did not show the violence in Tahrir, but a large happy smiley family filled pro-government rally either from earlier in the day or elsewhere in the city. State TV last night had a woman on claiming to be a member of the 6th April group that helped organize the first day of demonstrations, claiming she had received training in Israel and the US for this ‘operation’ as well as $50,000. Those who know how crazy this is are not watching state TV and those who do watch state TV could easily believe it.

I start with this because this is very much a battle of perception. It is still too early to tell who will win the battle of perception over yesterday’s violence. After Mubarak announced he would not run again the tide was definitely turning against the demonstrators with the view that they had achieved enough and now it is important to have life resume. As news of the scale of the violence of yesterday has spread today the tide of public opinion may be shifting again. It is hard to say. Nevertheless, while the international community it seems is hardening against Mubarak; inside Egypt fear of further violence and chaos and what would happen if Mubarak did leave is also growing.

THE DEMONSTRATIONS

I do not think the demonstrators reflect the will of the majority of the people, especially when they demand Mubarak step down. The demonstrations were started by young people and the so called ‘facebook’ generation, as you know. It is generally middle class and people from all walks of life had participated in the demonstrations and indeed some of those camping out in Tahrir and the most dedicated are certainly poor and have little to lose. But I would say the middle and upper middle class are over-represented. I was pleased and proud that 200,000+ it seems turned up throughout the day on Tuesday in Tahrir and perhaps a million throughout Egypt. This is unprecedented and shows more activism, engagement and empowerment than I have ever seen and I have to say, than I had expected. But what about the other 79 million Egyptians? They too want change, but not at any cost. They want stability and security first -- and for many Mubarak symbolizes both.

Most Egyptians just want to get by. While the middle class will certainly be the most dramatically affected by the bomb this has dropped on the economy, the poor will suffer as well, and unlike the middle class are suffering now. For the many who are living on the margin, with no reserves, workers who get paid by the day or shop keepers who can’t open their shops, or worse have had their stock looted and destroyed, this is devastating. Peaceful pro-Mubarak demonstrations around Cairo yesterday were more pro-stability demonstrations.

The opposition is divided and leaderless, everyone knows this and so it is hard to get greater or wider support. On Tuesday, after the nights of looting the friend we had gone to the demonstration with us on Friday was opposed to any further demonstrations because the poor were the ones suffering and the opposition had no plan of action. Our other friend, who did go on Tuesday, said he thought it was clear the chaos the government was allowing at night was a message to the people that they had to choose between freedom and security. He rejected being asked to make such a choice and so went to the demonstrations. This was our reason for wanting to go as well. But he is not going now as it is something else to have Egyptians fighting other Egyptians with no end in sight. The idea that Egypt with little history of democratic institutions or processes will make a smooth transition in a single step to democracy seems fanciful. How and when it will happen and how significant is the step they have taken this week is hard to say.

As an Australian friend here observed: it is as if Egyptians have been muzzled and now the muzzle has been taken off, but the muscles in their mouth have atrophied and so they don’t know how to speak and it will take time for them to learn to speak coherently. There is the very big risk that the government will muzzle them again before this can happen or that the people will muzzle themselves horrified by the physical violence and verbal arguments that are breaking out all over.

THE WEST

The West is in a very tricky situation I think; it is reaping the harvest of decades of hypocrisy by calling for democracy on the one hand and supporting dictators with the other. Despite this and that teargas canisters have clearly written on them “made in the USA” the anti-government demonstrations and the mood in the country has emphatically not been anti-western or anti-US. We have felt more looked after than ever and have heard the same from other foreigners. It is the pro-government “demonstrators” who have attacked journalists and shouted anti-US/Western slogans. This is the government trying to blame the demonstrations on outside provocateurs – and it is working.

Therefore we need to be careful not to give the government fuel. People here don’t have to think far back or look far away to see the deliberate and devastating meddling of the West/US in the region. It is difficult for us to push Mubarak; it is difficult for us to prefer and thereby delegitimize any opposition candidate. It is understandable why we would want to clutch onto Baradei as an honorary ‘one of us’, but he is supported by only a small segment of Egyptians. I myself find it difficult to take him seriously as a representative of the Egyptian people when he is not even willing to live as an Egyptian. When he returned to Egypt last year with much fan fare he should have got his hands dirty with grass roots activism and coalition building and instead he left the country again very soon after. He returned to Egypt after the demonstrations started to build momentum.

Just as importantly, I think we in the West need to keep our own fears in check. It is extremely unlikely that Egypt would end up a radical Islamist state if for no other reason than most Egyptians fear this more than Americans do. This is especially the case for Egypt’s liberal elite and 8 million Christians who are terrified of an Islamist regime taking over. The government knows this and holds this fear, along with the that of chaos, over the people’s heads making it that much harder for opposition to build or unify.

I think the West should prioritize process over outcome. If the Muslim Brotherhood (which is not an extremist group) wins in a free and fair election so be it. The country is 90% Muslim and religiously conservative. It is not for the outside world to decide what is best for Egypt. Egyptians need to decide for themselves. If the institutions and processes are put in place that is the important thing. Current estimates are that the MB would win a third of the vote in an election. Much of their popularity is based on good organization and social services for the poor. They renounced violence in the 1960s and have been one of the biggest and most consistent organizations calling for greater democracy in Egypt for years. Other opposition groups need to raise their game and actually do something for the millions of Egyptians they are claiming to represent. That is how democracy works. This is why I think the West needs to focus on ensuring a process rather than a particular outcome.

Thus I was frustrated when I heard an interview with Tony Blair a few days back in which he was very cautious about change here and warned against what might happen if the Muslim Brotherhood came to power. It sounded arrogant and imperialistic to me. Europeans might dread Tea Partiers in America, but it is not their place to try and determine what happens in American politics. Egyptians deserve the same respect. Indeed I had my own ‘Tony Blair moment’ when our friend Ahmed discouraged us from going to the demonstrations on Tuesday. I thought security concerns, or that that the government would be able to manipulate our presence for its own advantage, were exaggerated and I really wanted to be there. But we are guests here and all day I had to remind myself: it is not about me, or what I want, but about what Egyptians want!

They are still trying to figure that out.